The current overall profit of MTO is weaker than that of other processes

Economic comparison of propylene process: the current overall profit of MTO is weaker than that of other processes

Since the supply-side reform, as the coal industry’s production capacity has been withdrawn, the supply has shrunk month-on-month, and the price of raw coal for coal chemical industry has experienced a limited decline, and coal-based profits have declined in recent years.

In contrast to the oil head process, after the shale oil revolution, the production of crude oil in the United States has risen sharply, and the focus of the oil head cost side has dropped sharply.Superimposed on the impact of the new crown in 2020, crude oil has created a new low, the cost of oil head has been reduced, and the oil-based route is no longer a marginal cost. In 2020, the profit exceeded the CTO for the first time.Entering 2021, as the joint production cut continues and coal prices continue to fall, CTO profits will once again surpass.

In addition, as the price of propylene oil is more dominant, the price of propylene and crude oil have a greater positive correlation. When the price of crude oil rises, the profit of coal-to-olefins expands, and when the price of crude oil falls, the profit of coal-to-olefins shrinks.

According to the calculation of this data model, considering the processing cost, CTO can realize profit when the oil price is above US$30/barrel;When the oil price reaches $45/barrel, its profit is basically the same as that of the oil-based system; when the oil price exceeds $72/barrel, the profit from the coal-based system will exceed the oil-based system by RMB 2,000 for every ton of propylene produced.In terms of oil head, crude oil catalytic cracking and naphtha cracking are indistinguishable, the profit trend is similar, and the center has mainly fluctuated around 500-2500 yuan / ton in the past three years, which is largely due to the high linkage between naphtha and Brent prices.

In terms of coal head comparison, the CTO process consumes 4.8 thermal coal and 1.5 fuel coal per unit, and the MTO process consumes about 3 methanol per unit. Considering catalysts, depreciation, financial expenses, etc., the profit of CTO is obviously better than that of MTO, so we believe that the profit of coal head process is better than that of MTO. It mainly focuses on coal-syngas-methanol, namely the first stage of CTM. There is no upstream methanol-to-olefins unit, and the profit is meager.

In terms of propane dehydrogenation, the propane consumption per unit is 1.2, and the overall propane profit of the outer disk is slightly higher than that of the inner disk of 200-400 yuan/ton. In the past three years, my country's PHD process profit center has maintained an overall level of 500-2500 yuan / ton, but in the mid-Q2 of 2019 and the late Q4 of 2019, due to the rise in cost-side raw materials, PDH profits entered a period of loss, and entered the H1 of 2020. The cost reduction caused by the new crown epidemic has caused PDH's profits to recover significantly. After entering Q4, with the sharp rise in propane prices, profits plummeted again. In terms of sensitivity, MTO>PDH>catalytic cracking>steam cracking≈CTO, the cost and profit of MTO are significantly more sensitive to raw material prices than other processes, which is mainly due to the high proportion of MTO raw material costs in the total cost. Taking MTO and CTO as an example, the raw material cost of a typical CTO project accounts for only 32% of the total cost, while the MTO project is as high as 74%.